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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Daily Habits that I use to trade order flow

  1. Record News Articles. Then you read through the news articles and save the key phrases,
paragraphs, quotes, etc, that give you insight into the markets expectations, sentiment, global
macro, etc, and then input these input your currency specific master file.

  1. Record Propriety News Impact Releases Method and input into your currency specific file.

  1. Record impact of any other intraday events which were not on calendar which moved the
market and input into the currency specific file using the news impact release method if possible.

  1. Record any key phrases and information released on IFR, forexlive, etc that gives you insights
into market expectations, sentiment, global macro, etc, and input into currency specific file. The
daily recap of the news articles will give you a very nice overview of what happened. However, I
usually like to quickly view the IFR and scroll through the news to see if there was anything
important that was said by an important official, etc. Or if the daily news articles do not give me
sufficient meaning as to why price did what it did for the day, then I can go to IFR to read some
of their explanations to see if I agree with their story and scenarios for the market. Again, any
important information I record it into my currency master files.
  1. Label the stops and option barrier levels on your chart and set price alerts to the two closest
ones – one to the topside and one for the downside. Then once one of those gets triggered, you
just reset the price alert to the next closest stop/barrier level. Check the stop hunting section to
learn how to locate the stops.
  1. Use your currency master file to perform deep scenario analysis.
  2. Create an order flow generator list and trigger sheet. Bullish and Bearish triggers and
generators for each currency / financial instrument. What is the market pricing in. What will
shatter those expectations. I have provided you Order Flow Generators for each currency in
a separate lesson. There can be similarities between the different currencies.
  1. Prepare for next days news. Use your currency master file which should contain the history of
news impacts that you have recorded in order to determine which reports are important and
which ones are meaningless and you should not spend your time on. See the news trading
section for explanations on how to know which news releases are important.
  1. Prepare a Correlation Analysis / Sensitivity Sheet.
  2. Learn about one new order flow generator and/or scenario per day either from forex, or
bonds, futures, stocks, commodities, etc. Can be super simple or complicated mix of
participants.
submitted by Fox-The-Wise to Forex [link] [comments]

The Daily Autist, By An Autist, For Autists. 03/24/20

The Daily Autist

03/24/20

Hot Off The Spectrum

TLDR of the News to Inform Your Moves (Monday was a lot. Even my post is long)

What’s up sluts. I’m back with another burst of autism. I’ve been Rick fuggin Rollin in the tendies (AKA not hemorrhaging money) and these posts have been fairly accurate. I’ll be adding plays to the NostraLosses section as a result to bring more clarity to my dumbass takes.
FIRST THINGS FUCKING FIRST THE ORIGINAL AUTIST ARTIST WHO DREW THE OLD LOGO HAS COME TO LIGHT IM SO FUCKING HAPPY. We’ll never get it back, but sometimes closure on it’s own feels good enough. What am I a fucking teenager? The rest of the sub was shit yesterday/this morning.I was shadowbanned for posting “Fear mongering Corona Content,” and yet 75% of the sub’s hot posts are exactly that but with even less info than I had. Rest is memes. No plays or info. Honestly kinda sad.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fnpz20/hey_yall_i_drew_the_original_baby_ama/
Obligatory Corona Dump (Monday news could not stop throating COVID content)
Things are in such a Twilight Zone State Amazon is getting credit for being “altruistic,” like they didn’t hike up prices since late January themselves and only altered their practices once Trump threatened Defense Production Act (DPA) notice they’re also only suspending, so once things are just slightly back to normal please price gouge errthang.
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3076638/amazon-suspends-almost-4000-seller-accounts-unfairly-priced-products
Costco is also getting unwarranted credit. They won’t take back your tower of toilet paper or tub of hand sanitizer, which COSTS them money they already made. Did they have any problem hiking the price, refusing to limit sales per person, not give their employees PPE, or donate any relief from their excess food products due to banning eating at the location and numbers going down? Nah? ok. So the good guy is the company that profited off of fear and won’t provide the minimum financial relief to those who thought it was that extreme. Stop demonizing your fellow worker citizens.
https://brobible.com/culture/article/costco-toilet-paper-returns-hoarders/
Companies getting high praise and both articles implying a return to normalcy soon. How does that affect the markets? Normies are being told everything is okay and they will follow suit. Is everything okay? Absolutely not. These MFs in charge just announced unlimited QE yesterday nothing’s okay financially. Retard normie pump coming in.
Financial News:
Trump is saying that unless 10,000 die in the streets soon he’s gonna “re-open” the economy after the 15 days. At this point it’s a bit of a walking Onion article. Thursday?” ITS A WAR WE WILL CAPTURE AND KNIFE COVID’S ASSHOLE”. Friday? “This is serious. I do not want to use any drastic measures but I will. This is very verry serious.” Monday? “Isn’t being stuck inside fucking wack? Let’s open the pit up bro” I recommend watching the video with subtitles to get a transcript of his speech patterns.
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/america-will-again-and-soon-be-open-for-id701434357?chan=9qsux198
I predicted the Fed couldn’t devalue the dollar as fast as other countries could want it and it seems to be holding up. A very small dip from the news they’re willing to print unlimited moneys? The global economy is in trouble if that's still the stability bearer. Puts are lookin good, but they need to be farther out. 04/17 soonest for my comfort. Especially with the temporary re-open of the US economy. Seeing Reuters use “money bazooka,’ multiple times in the last week has been fantastic.
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex/forex-dollar-slips-as-feds-money-bazooka-raises-hopes-of-easier-cash-supply-idUSL4N2BH2AF
Italy’s debt, tax, and unemployment relief are all being held up by congressional disputes and an ability to only handle a tenth of the paperwork that comes in. Sound familiar? Maybe ominous? The population density in regions of Italy is our closest analog to how a free (eat my dick South Korea) country is gonna get hit. Their healthcare system is also tainted by for-profit companies and insurance so it’s also pretty similar medical coverage wise per capita.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-insight/banks-struggle-to-ride-to-the-rescue-in-europes-cash-crunch-battle-idUSKBN21B0OE
United Airlines is threatening to fire workers if they don’t get a bailout. I hope to fuck this is the tipping point and the government forces United to hand over their payroll list so the gov. Provide financial relief to their employees while United liquidates their assets or sells to some Saudi Conglomerate. Effect on market? PUTS ON UNITED BITCH THEY GOIN OUT
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/819401028/united-airlines-threatens-to-cut-jobs-if-coronavirus-aid-package-isnt-passed (From 03/20 but was drowned out by other news. Looks more and more likely airlines won’t be bailed out)
Everyday Fox business posts something for Boomers to buy more Ford or Dine stocks (idk what old people buy) and today they have some good ammo. Overnight futures were up. Pre-market today as of 06:31 EST is $234.72 after touching 238. Looks like today is going to be the bull trap day as the rumors of stimulus are hot again. If it gets passed I expect a 245-248 top before the unemployment numbers Thursday fist everyone. Market effect? Short term calls as everyone gets high on optimism and long term puts for when they come down.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-futures-gain-ground-as-congress-moves-closer-to-a-stimulus-deal
Crypto is taking off after tanking yesterday. Overnight rally (NZ markets followed by Asian markets) carried it up 14% in the last 16 hours. It started to rise slowly after the QE announcement but really flew overnight and this morning. Cooling off now but already had a dip to 6650 and right back up to 6700+ While not always correlated, crypto is a key indicator right now in speculative confidence while people are budgeting for maintaining their lives versus increasing their future wealth. No link because every crypto site is owned by a Ponzi schemer. Fight me and my tinfoil fucking hat. Here are some squigglies and bars
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BITBAY
My NostraLosses Prediction? The rumors of stimulus and the passed unlimited QE will provide market optimism today and tomorrow. Thursday’s unemployment numbers is the next scheduled big news so I wouldn’t get any short term puts unless scalping. If anything unexpected news could bring the market even higher with it being random good news versus any random catastrophic news. Market open will be up about 6% from the previous day’s close, so I expect a short term dip at open which would be a good spot to get quick calls to then ride the pump. Market closes above 235 and if stimulus passes along with more false optimism statements by Trump there’s possibly a sharp bull run to 245-248 by end of Wednesday.
Plays to follow:
SPY: 240c 03/27 once the first dip of day happens. If your bankroll allows for a few days farther out I would go for it. If SPY does hit 240, SELL call and BUY put for 228 04/01 at soonest.
DIA: 190P 04/17 It hasn’t fallen nearly as hard as it should (another 5% imo) and the industries making it up are going to have numbers showing how bad the payroll cuts and profit loss has been. During today’s pump get some not so fucking expensive puts (made sure not to say cheap)
Any Stupid Tech Company: Retarded OTM call for 03/27 or later. With so many people being stuck at home the last week or so the tech companies are outperforming the market with the idea that: The high user rate means more $$$, but if there’s more people on because they are not working or laid off, how do they have the money to buy shitty sponsored products on their feed? The kicker here is ads have always had near useless efficacy rates on social media so the fact they will continue to do a shit job might not change much. Anyway people are fucking dumb and tech gonna continue to rally this week. Signed, someone with 1.5k in TWTR Puts expiring over next 4 weeks.
Most people don’t even give you one play. I’m giving you multiple ways to lose your money.
TLDR of my TLDR: Companies who profited off the crisis getting karma points for no reason. Normies think the crisis will be over next Friday. International currencies are still erratic but the markets are rallying today globally (sign of lacking underlying stability for said rally). Italy can’t pass anything or handle the paperwork from their previously set up process (AKA USA in 7-10 days under current stimulus proposals) and they don’t have a solution in sight. Stimulus has everyone rock hard for calls again, ride the short term rise and pick up puts while you’re up there. Just be a long term gay bear experimenting with bulls depending on the day.
Results on my thoughts from last post 03/23: I was incorrect on circuit breaker open but was only 1% away and it did run up mid-day as called. So if you sold at 218 to buy calls to sell a few hours later, we nailed it boys. If you were aiming for price instead of time, it never hit 234 again which was a key test and you’re likely sitting on a fat red option right now. I was about half right which is all you need to be. I’ve also switched up Market affect and effect because I’m retarded and am unsure which is right anymore. Nvm grammarly fixed it.
And again, I mean this sincerely,

submitted by AvocadosAreMeh to wallstreetbets2 [link] [comments]

ICOs and Cryptoassets are a Complete Scam, and Here's Why.

Please upvote so that knowledgeable people can address these issues
When someone purchases a stock during an IPO, they receive an asset associated with a bundle of rights that are recognized and enforceable by law. Such rights include the right to vote, the right to share in dividend distributions, the right to inspect company books, the right to sue D&Os for breach of fiduciary duties, various minority shareholder rights, owning a portion of the company, etc).
In contrast, when someone purchases a cryptoasset, they literally receive nothing but some bytes on their computer that are unaccompanied by any legal rights even remotely analogous to those associated with traditional investment vehicles such as stocks. This begs the question, then, why cryptoassets have any value at all aside from simple supply / demand economics (i.e., the existence or non-existence of greater fools). I understand cryptocurrency and why it is traded in pairs just like fiat is traded in pairs in the FOREX market. But aside from using crypto as a currency, why are non-currency cryptoassets worth anything?
For example, Ripple Labs created XRP. However, from a traditional investment viewpoint, potential returns come not from investing the cryptoasset XRP. Rather, potential returns come from investing in Ripple Labs as a company just as various venture capitalists and angel investors invested $93,600,000 in Ripple Labs during nine different funding rounds. These venture capitalists and angel investors have top priority when it comes receiving any sort of return on investment, so why would anyone invest in XRP other than the fact that they don't have enough money to get in as a venture capitalist or angel investor? How is investing in XRP instead of Ripple Labs any different that purchasing Big Mac hamburgers thinking that you are investing in the company that sells them, i.e., MacDonalds?
The closest I’ve seen to any sort of real answer to this question is that cryptoasset tokens are used as fuel or gas on various blockchain-based networks, which are purportedly required to disincentivize spammers from spamming the open and decentralized blockchain-based network. However, no large financial institution (or other business for that matter) will resort to a public and decentralized system (they will develop and use blockchain-based networks in-house and may even make them proprietary for their own firm). Moreover, financial institutions participating in a blockchain-based network already have an incentive not to spam the network, namely to keep transaction times as optimal as possible. Additionally, why would any business with significant assets purchase tokens, gas, fuel (or whatever you want to call it) to use an open and decentralized network when it could simply use the same blockchain technology to create its own blockchain-based network, which it could then use for free without the need to disincentivize spammers.
It is impossible to invest in a "project" or a "technology." Rather, you invest in COMPANIES working on projects or advancing technologies, and when they succeed, you are rewarded because revenues increase which result in companies having greater net income distributed as larger dividends, not to mention larger capital gains due to a greater demand to purchase the legally enforceable ownership stake in the business that you own. The entire cryptosphere is nothing more than some sort of sci-fi role playing game with "fuel" and "tokens" none of which have any legally enforceable rights to anything. You're all a bunch of suckers.
Edit: The worse part is that YOUR money is going to finance Venture Capitalists' projects who will then walk away with the legal rights to it all.
submitted by ResIpsaLoquiturrr to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[X-Post from /r/CryptoCurrency] Please ELI5 Why Cryptoassets are Worth Anything? [WARNING: Critical Thinking Ahead]

When someone purchases a stock during an IPO, they receive an asset associated with a bundle of rights that are recognized and enforceable by law. Such rights include the right to vote, the right to share in dividend distributions, the right to inspect company books, the right to sue D&Os for breach of fiduciary duties, various minority shareholder rights, owning a portion of the company, etc). In contrast, when someone purchases a cryptoasset, they literally receive nothing but some bytes on their computer that are unaccompanied by any legal rights even remotely analogous to those associated with traditional investment vehicles such as stocks. This begs the question, then, why cryptoassets have any value at all aside from simple supply / demand economics (i.e., the existence or non-existence of greater fools). I understand cryptocurrency and why it is traded in pairs just like fiat is traded in pairs in the FOREX market. But aside from using crypto as a currency, why are non-currency cryptoassets worth anything?
For example, Ripple Labs created XRP. However, from a traditional investment viewpoint, potential returns come not from investing the cryptoasset XRP. Rather, potential returns come from investing in Ripple Labs as a company just as various venture capitalists and angel investors invested $93,600,000 in Ripple Labs during nine different funding rounds. These venture capitalists and angel investors have top priority when it comes receiving any sort of return on investment, so why would anyone invest in XRP other than the fact that they dont have enough money to get in as a venture capitalist or angel investor? How is investing in XRP instead of Ripple Labs any different that investing in Big Mac hamburgers instead of investing in the company that sells them, i.e., MacDonalds?
The closest I’ve seen to any sort of real answer to this question is that cryptoasset tokens are used as fuel or gas on various blockchain-based networks, which are purportedly required to disincentivize spammers from spamming the open and decentralized blockchain-based network. However, no large financial institution (or other business for that matter) will resort to a public and decentralized system (they will develop and use blockchain-based networks in-house and may even make them proprietary for their own firm). Moreover, financial institutions participating in a blockchain-based network already have an incentive not to spam the network, namely to keep transaction times as optimal as possible. Additionally, why would any business with significant assets purchase tokens, gas, fuel (or whatever you want to call it) to use an open and decentralized network when it could simply use the same blockchain technology to create its own blockchain-based network, which it could then use for free without the need to disincentivize spammers.
Please ELI5 how non-currency cryptoassets (as opposed to the most privately-held companies that are creating them) are worth anything. Stated alternatively, please ELI5 how cryptoassets have been monetized and commoditized by the companies creating them. I think that understanding the answer to these questions could help many people on this sub, including myself. Thanks.
FUD Disclaimer: This post is not FUD. I truly believe that blockchain technology is undoubtedly changing businesses, business processes, and transactions in a very fundamental way. I just don’t understand why people are attributing value to digital cryptoassets instead of the companies that are creating these cryptoassets. Ripple Labs and XRP were used simply as an example. That’s all.
submitted by ResIpsaLoquiturrr to CryptoCurrencies [link] [comments]

[Semi-Rant] Can someone please explain Ripple to me? What is the real world value?

Some background, I have a bit of experience in tech and finance industries. I'm familiar with cryptocurrencies and I understand how Ripple's ledger works. I get that the Ripple protocol, its technologies, and XRP are different things. I have a rough idea on the touted benefits. I'm partially writing this because of the Santander deal, but frankly, I don't see the value as I'll explain below.
Financial institutions operate a certain way because regulation dictates certain requirements. Regulation makes big bank tech both wonky and difficult to work with, possibly far more difficult than most people realize.
First of all, Ripple will not be able to connect to all financial institutions in the world (as their website claims), full stop. The sheer amount of transaction data from any major bank particularly when you're dealing with forex and currencies is staggering. Think millions per second at the very least. Never mind Ripple, I don't know of any distributed ledger technology fast enough to handle this.
Supposedly Ripple solves the liquidity problem of cross-border transactions but most primary fiat currencies don't have a liquidity problem. So what liquidity problem are they solving for? Currencies are OTC, same as cryptocurrencies. Of all the asset classes that are closest to being organically decentralized, fiat currencies are actually it (even though they get a lot of hate around here). Yes, some exotic currencies in emerging markets may have tight liquidity at times, but I don't exactly see how any of Ripple's technologies or XRP actually solves this.
The one area I could possibly see Ripple having an impact on, and it certainly seems they're headed that way, is cross border payment processors that are semi at the mercy of larger banks. They are the parties most likely to get squeezed by FX fees and spreads in some form or manner. However, as far as I'm aware, Ripple would not pass the bar to achieve this easily or cheaply. To the best of my understanding, XRP would be the middleman for the middleman in the best case scenario.
Many transactions between banks and/or financial institutions are based on credit that then requires clearance. Technology basically reduces the resolution time of these transactions to probably seconds or minutes. When banks say that it takes days to resolve, that's more of an expectations setting measure than technical reality, and occasionally things do go truly wrong. Ripple assumes an immediate value transfer is a desirable outcome, which isn't the case. Credit is far more easy to reverse than an erroneous value transfer.
100 billion XRP is insufficient to provide global liquidity. An LP will probably have at least a billion in highly liquid assets on hand, and credit that runs into hundreds of billions and sometimes trillions. That's in fiat.
I could go on but this is already bordering on a rant. I've been trying to wrap my head around why banks would want to use Ripple over existing tech and I just don't see it. A trustless, decentralized database is fine and all but it isn't superior, and using it for the sake of using it doesn't make a lot of sense. My current guess is that Ripple seems to be the lowest risk blockchain to explore from the banks perspective, so they're checking it out.
submitted by schwann to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Please ELI5 Why Cryptoassets are Worth Anything? [WARNING: Critical Thinking Ahead]

When someone purchases a stock during an IPO, they receive an asset associated with a bundle of rights that are recognized and enforceable by law. Such rights include the right to vote, the right to share in dividend distributions, the right to inspect company books, the right to sue D&Os for breach of fiduciary duties, various minority shareholder rights, owning a portion of the company, etc). In contrast, when someone purchases a cryptoasset, they literally receive nothing but some bytes on their computer that are unaccompanied by any legal rights even remotely analogous to those associated with traditional investment vehicles such as stocks. This begs the question, then, why cryptoassets have any value at all aside from simple supply / demand economics (i.e., the existence or non-existence of greater fools). I understand cryptocurrency and why it is traded in pairs just like fiat is traded in pairs in the FOREX market. But aside from using crypto as a currency, why are non-currency cryptoassets worth anything?
For example, Ripple Labs created XRP. However, from a traditional investment viewpoint, potential returns come not from investing the cryptoasset XRP. Rather, potential returns come from investing in Ripple Labs as a company just as various venture capitalists and angel investors invested $93,600,000 in Ripple Labs during nine different funding rounds. These venture capitalists and angel investors have top priority when it comes receiving any sort of return on investment, so why would anyone invest in XRP other than the fact that they dont have enough money to get in as a venture capitalist or angel investor? How is investing in XRP instead of Ripple Labs any different that investing in Big Mac hamburgers instead of investing in the company that sells them, i.e., MacDonalds?
The closest I’ve seen to any sort of real answer to this question is that cryptoasset tokens are used as fuel or gas on various blockchain-based networks, which are purportedly required to disincentivize spammers from spamming the open and decentralized blockchain-based network. However, no large financial institution (or other business for that matter) will resort to a public and decentralized system (they will develop and use blockchain-based networks in-house and may even make them proprietary for their own firm). Moreover, financial institutions participating in a blockchain-based network already have an incentive not to spam the network, namely to keep transaction times as optimal as possible. Additionally, why would any business with significant assets purchase tokens, gas, fuel (or whatever you want to call it) to use an open and decentralized network when it could simply use the same blockchain technology to create its own blockchain-based network, which it could then use for free without the need to disincentivize spammers.
Please ELI5 how non-currency cryptoassets (as opposed to the most privately-held companies that are creating them) are worth anything. Stated alternatively, please ELI5 how cryptoassets have been monetized and commoditized by the companies creating them. I think that understanding the answer to these questions could help many people on this sub, including myself. Thanks.
FUD Disclaimer: This post is not FUD. I truly believe that blockchain technology is undoubtedly changing businesses, business processes, and transactions in a very fundamental way. I just don’t understand why people are attributing value to digital cryptoassets instead of the companies that are creating these cryptoassets. Ripple Labs and XRP were used simply as an example. That’s all.
submitted by ResIpsaLoquiturrr to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

My experience with Norbit's Gambit [google sheets link included]

Just want to share my experience doing Norbit's Gambit, for anyone that may want to learn on my experience, or tell me all the ways in which I am wrong.
I've posted a question earlier, asking how to make sure the market didn't swing in the wrong direction. And yes, I understand it's called a "gambit" for a reason.
=== TL;DR === - Wanted to save $65 on currency conversion while buying CAD $3,500 worth of US stock - Overestimated forex fee, underestimated NG cost - Murphy happened... - Lost potential gains of CAD $185.80 while waiting - Is the gambit ever worth it?
=== The goal === - On August 25th, use about CAD $3,500 to buy some US Netflix (NFLX) shares
=== The method === - Buy DLR in CAD - Call brokerage to journal over to US side - Sell DLR.U in USD - Buy NFLX with USD
In a lot of my research, I've been told the "fee" when going through the brokerage (Questrade in my case) is 2%. That's not too accurate.
=== The brokerage Forex rate/fee === So I assumed 2% of $3,500 would be $70.
However it's really an addition of 199 basis points to the exchange rate. I believe they use the closing exchange rate on the date of the transaction.
So if the exchange was 1.2500, it's 1.2699, and $CAD 1000 nets $USD 787.46 ($USD 12.54 short of ideal $USD 800). If we convert 12.54 to CAD, it's $CAD 15.68 or 1.568% on the original $CAD 1000.
But if the exchange is 1.2200, it's 1.2399, and $CAD 1000 nets $USD 806.51 ($USD 13.16 short of ideal $USD 819.67). If we convert 13.16 to CAD, it's $CAD 16.06 of 1.606% of the original $CAD 1000
The "conversion fee" is dependent on the exchange rate, but I can't figure out a quick direct way to calculate what the "fee" would be in source currency %. The closest guesstimate is to divide the basis points by the current exchange rate, as below:
On August 25th, the exchange rate was 1.2483. So the above guesstimate for the Forex "fee" would be $55.80. Or more accurately $54.91, close enough. Still, that's 21.5% lower than the broad *$70** estimate earlier.*
=== The NG effective fee === Here once again, the common consensus is that the NG's fee is just a cost of buying and selling an ETF. So, with QT's free ETF purchases, the guesstimate is just about $5 for the selling commission.
When I bought DLR ETF on August 25th, I got it for CAD $12.42 per share (that's not the day's close price, but what I actually paid). the US side of DLR.U is always US $9.93. The gives the DLR Exchange Rate of 1.2508... already different from the ideal 1.2483 (I suppose that's how the ETF makes money)
So, it would appear the cost/fee of NG is just CAD $0.99 + US $5.94 (CAD $8.40)... but not quite. Let's look as the actual US dollar amounts. Since we can only buy whole shares of DLR + ECN fee, from this point I am converting CAD $3,502.44 + $0.99 = $3,503.43
The difference between the ideal US $amount and what I am left with is the "fee" for doing NG. US $12.24, or CAD $15.28. This sets the NG's Effective Exchange Rate as 1.2538 or a "NG's fee" of 0.44%. Please note that this rate/fee is *based on the converted amount*: the more you convert, the less/cheaper it is.
So comparing the actual cost of NG vs QT's auto conversion and the guesstimates is quite different - Actual $15.28 vs $54.91 ($39.63 spread) - Guesstimate $5 vs $70 ($65 spread)
=== The Time factor === Now that I have US $2,794.32, let's buy some NFLX. The date now is Sept 5th (yes, the NG completed earlier, but I am human... also QT didn't call me when the journaling was completed so I got sidetracked).
Before doing the NG, I calculated that NFLX dropped about 2.02% in 10 days. It could also go up by same amount. That 2.02% rise on CAD $3,500 value would be a gain of $70.7... comparable to $65 guesstimate loss of doing currency auto-conversion through QT (QTAC). So in my analysis, at worth case it would be a wash, in best case I save some money on NG. ... We already know now that the actual cost of QTAC is much less ....
This was the end result of my NG: spent CAD $3,503.43 and 11 days later I have a US stock+cash Portfolio of value US $2,789.37
But considering the increase in NFLX stock over those 11 days, what if I would have just went with Questrade's Auto-conversion (QTAC) route?
In 11 days, the value of NFLX is @178.79 - Current value of 16 NFLX shares = US $2,860.64 - Plus cash US $77.57 for a Total Portfolio Value of US $2,938.21
If, on August 25th, I would have auto converted currency with QT and bought NFLX, I would have a portfolio value of US $2,938.21 on September 5th.
Instead, starting the Norbit's Gambit on August 25th, I bought NFLX on Sept 5th and have a portfolio value of US $2,789.37
Instead of saving a guesstimate of CAD $65, I have lost potential gains of US $148.84 or CAD $185.80
=== Murphy... or Loonie... whatever === In all of above, I tried to keep the currency fluctuations isolated. So apart from initial conversion on August 25th, all my future (September 5th) portfolio values were in USD. But as Murphy would have it, the BoC rate announcement made the loonie stronger in between my NG.
Based on above, doing QT auto-conversion - On August 25th, nets US $2,762.52 - On September 5th, nets US $2,817.62 I would have got US $55.10 more just by doing the QTAC later.
If I would have bought NFLX on September 5th after doing QTAC - 15 whole shares @178.79 + $4.95 comm leaves me with US $130.82 in cash - Total NFLX + Cash portfolio value of US $2,812.67
That's still US $23.30 more than doing the NG, although still less than just buying NFLX outright on August 25th and letting it grow.
=== Final conclusion === Smaller amount (CAD $3,500) for NG for a stock purchase that could/did swing 6% was not worth it. Loonie getting stronger also made the whole exercise fruitless, but even eliminating the currency fluctuation, the growth of the stock outperformed the savings of NG.
Playing with my numbers, assuming the currency fluctuation is fixed, for CAD $3,500, doing Norbit's Gambit vs Questrade's Auto-Conversion is breaking even when the stock appreciation is no more than 1.18% during the time it takes to complete NG (11 days in my case). Even if you are more punctual and can complete it in 5 days, you still need to make sure the stock doesn't appreciate more than 1.18% in 5 days.
By comparison, if converting CAD $10,000, it's break even if stock rises 1.27% during that time. When doing CAD $50,000 then 1.31%
Hmm.... so even at high amounts of CAD $50,000 the tolerance to stock fluctuation is pretty low. So is it worth it?
Ultimately I've:
For anyone that cares, here is public Google Sheets docs to verify my math (File -> Make a copy, in order to edit values) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nH8Q_0cKFtFTW_yomASHtpLXN6oYuTgkXeTNAMkQGY/edit?usp=sharing
submitted by hydraSlav to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?
Businesses devise a billion ways of wooing customers, every day. If a chatbot can be a useful accomplice toward that end, why not give it a try? Afterall, who wouldn’t want a tool that can hold an intelligent conversation with customers, make them feel comfortable and bind them to your business.
Is it possible?
Recall that memorable scene from the award winning 2003 film, Lost in Translation, where an aging American actor, Bob Harris (played by Bill Murray), is on a set in Tokyo to shoot a whiskey commercial. The director, Yutaka Tadokoro, begins instructing Bob in Japanese, and the slapdash interpreter fails to capture the meaning—namely, it gets lost in translation. The process bogs down, and the commercial is a disaster.
You don’t want human-to-computer interactions to end up that way, right? But one-way communications prove to be too exasperating to users. People give up on trying to get a machine understand their intentions in a few clicks and presses. There’s that missing vibe, that interactive component in any human-computer engagement; and it’s the main reason a vast majority feels they must adapt to the technologies they use, rather than technology adapting to them.
https://preview.redd.it/mzxagl6zwrd11.jpg?width=220&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=49da6f90e91dc9686b28c337b159b74c7f6dd3bf
Enter 2018, and we have artificial intelligence (AI)-driven chatbots that are revolutionizing human-computer interactions just the way the humans want it. Chatbots today are more adaptive to the way people speak and mimic their emotions to the nearest binary. 2018 is paving the way for a great chatbot innovation.
Meanwhile, developers are working tirelessly to bring in new consumer experiences to market. For example, once WhatsApp opens to bots next year, it will unlock direct access to over one billion new users. Chatbots are continuing to push the envelope of new technology further.
To reckon with, a chatbot isn’t an additional handle on your website or a fancy add-on. It’s the need of the hour for every business that’s flourishing or aspires to flourish. In a market that’s fiercely competitive, customers expect to receive accurate information quickly enough to make a decision. As a business owner, you need to cater to that need. If you don’t have funds to recruit more people to answer all the questions customers throw at you, then deploying a smart chatbot can rescue your business in that case.
https://preview.redd.it/vpuz6mb1xrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=f615929b9f190e38afe38c3d59ba084dbfc9747b
But then intelligence also matters as it determines the kind of tasks or conversations your chatbot can handle. Needless to say, if you have a clear set of activities preconceived in your mind, you can build awesome customized bots.
Let’s take you through a short read about 5 important things that can make a chatbot intelligent.
1. Bots need to understand human conversations:
The bot needs to be quick and intelligent enough to understand the context of the conversation happening in real time. It’s about sense and sensibility, in conversations.
Normal human conversations are replete with instances of switching over context while talking, while at work - resuming a task, discarding the current task and switching to a newer one, or in general hold a task while the other is being executed and work on follow on. Human conversations tend to switch between contexts and variables (intents and entities), often combining multiple things into one.
Sample this response to a flight booking bot for example, "My Destination? San Francisco. But how's the weather over there?"
What should be the bot’s response here - capture the entity and continue booking or check the weather before that?
In this case, chatbots need to
  • have context switching abilities to handle interruptions smartly and provide full control to developers in defining the experience
  • capture unattended interruptions from a conversation flow and keep them accessible
  • be equipped with human conversations and have the ability to hold and resume a dialog for a certain amount of time and execute the tasks in sequential order, and especially while understanding human emotions
You may argue that a bot is after all a machine and cannot absorb emotions, but all said and done, it also depends partly on how much capability you build into it. So, it must be clever enough to filter the feelings of the customer. The bot needs to understand, analyze and respond based on the human emotion. For instance, if a customer messages an online shopping portal saying, “Your service is amazing, the delivery of items are always 2 to 3 days delayed”, none can miss the biting sarcasm intended in the statement. But if the bot isn’t developed to cater to this sort of sentiment, it may end up answering in a horribly awry manner.
https://preview.redd.it/a3p88148xrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=f589d16a1d1407018f26c460404a69def2a4cf52
Intelligent bots will have: Sentiment analysis, context switching, hold and resume feature.
2. Standardization and uniformity in bot utterances
It’s important to remember that a chatbot must give vibes closest to humans as much as possible. The way humans carry the stamp of their personality and style, bots too need to be enabled to do that. When asked about something, a bot must respond in a particular way and pattern that sounds like a human. This warms the usecustomer and makes him feel at ease during the conversation with a chatbot.
“You must have direct connection with your customers as part of your brand’s identity, even more than your website that doesn’t seem to have an identity, this will have a personality.”- William Meisel
Thus, chatbots need to
  • understand and remember the user context - make all user information available in a single location and accessible
  • store the user profile with information like first name, last name and make it accessible to all the systems for the convenience of the user.
  • remember what a specific user talks to a specific bot, in an enterprise scenario it needs to keep certain features such as prompt for ‘Password length’ / ‘folder for HR information, constant for all the employees in the enterprise
It’s important for a chatbot to keep a current task which is being executed in an active mode and store information.
As a corollary, customers appreciate and connect with the support executives (call support executives/shopping store helpers) who can remember their preferences, can validate their purchases, help them with more information on products, and basically give importance to them while attending to their queries. For example, in a Forex platform the currency against each country is maintained constant across all systems for everyone to access. The platform tends to store the first and last name of the customer, their last transaction and their payment options.
Chatbots now have the responsibility to standardize their understanding of a customer and respond to them accordingly, whether in the manner of communicating or the speed with which they resolve their query. Chatbots need to converse with customers to extract this information and keep up to their pace.
https://preview.redd.it/flps4l6bxrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=dee88672cef176ed92778e962a9029543ee6cbd9
Intelligent bots will have features like: Small talk, Bot user session, Enterprise context, User context and User session
3. Making the complex conversation sound simple
Chatbots are expected to break the complex structures of conversations into simpler tones and bring to a logical conclusion. Here’s where ‘Artificial Intelligence’ comes into play. Among the many types of chatbots, the most common ones are task specific that cater to a specific job, with pre-loaded answers and information. These type of chatbots have the ability to gather data from the internet, previous company database and other sources. Therefore, these bots are able to reply to diverse queries.
The intelligent bots, in addition, have the potential to mold the conversation the way the customer wants and guide him towards a specific solution. In an office setup, it’s common for a conversation like, “Hey Lisa, set up a meeting with Phani if he’s free”, to be handled between a Boss and Secretary. To enable that, the chatbot needs to first look up the calendar of ‘Phani’, find a suitable time for a meeting in sync with the Boss’s schedule and then reschedule the meeting. Chatbots thus need to break up complex sounding conversation into simpler nuances and then execute the task sequentially and logically.
Intelligent bots can also break down the conversation to its essence and action items. Let’s look at a very common scenario: ‘Customer tries to book tickets for 14th August, confirms on the choice of airlines, origin and destination and navigates to the next page, but feels that the pricing is very high. The customer then asks the bot to check for ‘15th August instead’. Here, based on the situation, the chatbot is acting and will be able to display the new prices by changing the date of journey.
https://preview.redd.it/bzfoasiexrd11.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=67d134343093daf3d239c9bcfd0b315fb687d333
Intelligent bots will have features like: Amend Entities, Planning.
4. Adapting to human utterances
In the context of human–computer communication, forming assumptions about what a system can do and understand is problematic for most people. In turn, forming assumptions about how users will “talk to” the system is also likely to be problematic for system developers. The potential for variability in how users will communicate with a system is enormous and has been dubbed “The Vocabulary Problem.”
An intelligent chatbot can not only handle queries smartly and remembers them through the session, but also learns new things with every conversation that happens, saves them and uses them appropriately for future instances.
In a human conversation and especially over voice, there are bound to be
  • expectation of elaboration or confirmation (“can you hear me?”, “I do not follow”)
  • request for repeat of sentences (“ I’m sorry I couldn’t hear that, can you please repeat it again?” “Sorry, can you repeat?”)
  • pauses (“can you please hold? [pause] thank you!”)
  • interruptions (“the number is 212-” “sorry can you start over?” )
The simplest thing to do when writing responses to command and inquiry utterances in a conversational UI is to get straight to the point: respond with facts. That’ll remove a lot of the ambiguity and simplify the dialogue.
It’s up to the intelligent chatbot to adapt to the way the human responds - with the referential context (or) pauses (or) specific context (or) synonyms (or) repetition (or) abbreviations (or) variations in dialect. The chatbot needs to map it pre-contextually. But like their human counterparts, chatbots’ conversational skills determine whether they earn you seamless, scalable transactions or just another horde of pissed-off customers. This needs a lot of training by the chatbot to help continue the conversations to the logical ending.
https://preview.redd.it/u5g63jovxrd11.jpg?width=1581&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f394c933c28c1079cf290156de09f285b2054d1
Intelligent bots will have features like: Sync, Repeat, Interruptions and Pauses.
5. When bots are kept simple
Although AI chatbots’ task is complicated and they need to be built up that way, yet the effort should be made to keep it simple. They need to be comprehensive yet detailed. A customer initiating a conversation with a chatbot might already be troubled due to some poor service related issue, hence it’s better not to irk him further with complex interaction. The bot should be answering the already irked usecustomer in a most precise way possible without confusing the person further. It’s easy to figure out if you are talking to a bot or a human. Make sure the customer knows that they are talking to a bot by welcoming them with some sort of welcome message. Nobody likes being told the same thing over and over again, so why do chatbots keep doing it? Bots should detect when they’re about to repeat a previously given answer and switch strategies. If the answer didn’t resolve the user’s needs before, repeating it certainly won’t either. From the user interface, to the dialog flow the experience should be pleasant, and information given to the user needs to be valuable and crisp.
Twitter also provides the option to give your bot a custom name for different sections of the bot, which can be of use. It’s important to show what the chatbot is capable of doing with Quick Replies. The customer needs to be a guided stepwise within the conversation and with enough accessible options to choose from.
Lastly, there must always be a way to end the conversation with the bot and switch to a human agent. Many bots today include a Quick Reply to “Speak to an Agent”. Certain actions, such as open-ended visual search, are challenging to complete in a messaging environment. In those situations, bots can route to a website or app to help the user complete goals they couldn’t execute within the context of chat.
https://preview.redd.it/gc1j3z4sxrd11.jpg?width=578&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=331b9de9fcfa0c26ddf34eeb93783e909ecab6cf
Intelligent bots will have features like: Simple UI, Simpler steps, Agent Handoff
In a nutshell, a chatbot must be programmed to not just provide optimum solutions to problems, but also converse with customers in an engaging manner. The interaction must be exciting and the bot must appear to be curious enough to answer all queries. People prefer lively interactions and a chatbot needs to meet that expectation.
https://preview.redd.it/erd22jzpxrd11.jpg?width=1505&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d83e0de6283b47b1210a912d26e23dd8023d3afc
For example, there are bots aligned with online shopping portals that can actually sense your liking and disliking. They can cancel orders for you accordingly and order the stuff that you actually want. Businesses are now moving way ahead than what anyone had ever thought of earlier. If we have an amazing concept like messenger or Kore.aiBots Platform, then why not use them to the full extent. Their proficiency in collecting massive data in a short period of time can be used to forecast upcoming business. You know it better how to get edgy with this interesting concept. The more you experiment with chatbots, the more you would get to know the wonders you can create with these little machines.
Some of the Global 2,000 companies and large enterprises are using Kore.ai Bots Platform to build their chatbots. How about you?
To get everything you need to build and deploy intelligent, enterprise-grade chatbots — without unnecessary complexity, click on Build your first BOT.
To ask questions, get tips, learn and grow with Kore.AI developer community, click on Ask questions on Developer Community.
Also Read on : Chatbots (of) the Future
Thank You
Phani Marupaka
LinkedIn| Tweet at : @phani_teja
submitted by PhaniTeja4 to u/PhaniTeja4 [link] [comments]

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?

Can Chatbots be Intelligent?
Businesses devise a billion ways of wooing customers, every day. If a chatbot can be a useful accomplice toward that end, why not give it a try? Afterall, who wouldn’t want a tool that can hold an intelligent conversation with customers, make them feel comfortable and bind them to your business.
Is it possible?
Recall that memorable scene from the award winning 2003 film, Lost in Translation, where an aging American actor, Bob Harris (played by Bill Murray), is on a set in Tokyo to shoot a whiskey commercial. The director, Yutaka Tadokoro, begins instructing Bob in Japanese, and the slapdash interpreter fails to capture the meaning—namely, it gets lost in translation. The process bogs down, and the commercial is a disaster.
https://preview.redd.it/6vqwiux3urd11.jpg?width=220&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd5151869d3e932a32f56fc969406633cd3ba623
You don’t want human-to-computer interactions to end up that way, right? But one-way communications prove to be too exasperating to users. People give up on trying to get a machine understand their intentions in a few clicks and presses. There’s that missing vibe, that interactive component in any human-computer engagement; and it’s the main reason a vast majority feels they must adapt to the technologies they use, rather than technology adapting to them.
Enter 2018, and we have artificial intelligence (AI)-driven chatbots that are revolutionizing human-computer interactions just the way the humans want it. Chatbots today are more adaptive to the way people speak and mimic their emotions to the nearest binary. 2018 is paving the way for a great chatbot innovation.
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Meanwhile, developers are working tirelessly to bring in new consumer experiences to market. For example, once WhatsApp opens to bots next year, it will unlock direct access to over one billion new users. Chatbots are continuing to push the envelope of new technology further.
To reckon with, a chatbot isn’t an additional handle on your website or a fancy add-on. It’s the need of the hour for every business that’s flourishing or aspires to flourish. In a market that’s fiercely competitive, customers expect to receive accurate information quickly enough to make a decision. As a business owner, you need to cater to that need. If you don’t have funds to recruit more people to answer all the questions customers throw at you, then deploying a smart chatbot can rescue your business in that case.
But then intelligence also matters as it determines the kind of tasks or conversations your chatbot can handle. Needless to say, if you have a clear set of activities preconceived in your mind, you can build awesome customized bots.
Let’s take you through a short read about 5 important things that can make a chatbot intelligent.
1. Bots need to understand human conversations:
The bot needs to be quick and intelligent enough to understand the context of the conversation happening in real time. It’s about sense and sensibility, in conversations.
Normal human conversations are replete with instances of switching over context while talking, while at work - resuming a task, discarding the current task and switching to a newer one, or in general hold a task while the other is being executed and work on follow on. Human conversations tend to switch between contexts and variables (intents and entities), often combining multiple things into one.
Sample this response to a flight booking bot for example, "My Destination? San Francisco. But how's the weather over there?"
What should be the bot’s response here - capture the entity and continue booking or check the weather before that?
In this case, chatbots need to
  • have context switching abilities to handle interruptions smartly and provide full control to developers in defining the experience
  • capture unattended interruptions from a conversation flow and keep them accessible
  • be equipped with human conversations and have the ability to hold and resume a dialog for a certain amount of time and execute the tasks in sequential order, and especially while understanding human emotions
You may argue that a bot is after all a machine and cannot absorb emotions, but all said and done, it also depends partly on how much capability you build into it. So, it must be clever enough to filter the feelings of the customer. The bot needs to understand, analyze and respond based on the human emotion. For instance, if a customer messages an online shopping portal saying, “Your service is amazing, the delivery of items are always 2 to 3 days delayed”, none can miss the biting sarcasm intended in the statement. But if the bot isn’t developed to cater to this sort of sentiment, it may end up answering in a horribly awry manner.
Intelligent bots will have: Sentiment analysis, context switching, hold and resume feature.
2. Standardization and uniformity in bot utterances
It’s important to remember that a chatbot must give vibes closest to humans as much as possible. The way humans carry the stamp of their personality and style, bots too need to be enabled to do that. When asked about something, a bot must respond in a particular way and pattern that sounds like a human. This warms the usecustomer and makes him feel at ease during the conversation with a chatbot.
“You must have direct connection with your customers as part of your brand’s identity, even more than your website that doesn’t seem to have an identity, this will have a personality.”- William Meisel
Thus, chatbots need to
  • understand and remember the user context - make all user information available in a single location and accessible
  • store the user profile with information like first name, last name and make it accessible to all the systems for the convenience of the user.
  • remember what a specific user talks to a specific bot, in an enterprise scenario it needs to keep certain features such as prompt for ‘Password length’ / ‘folder for HR information, constant for all the employees in the enterprise
It’s important for a chatbot to keep a current task which is being executed in an active mode and store information.
As a corollary, customers appreciate and connect with the support executives (call support executives/shopping store helpers) who can remember their preferences, can validate their purchases, help them with more information on products, and basically give importance to them while attending to their queries. For example, in a Forex platform the currency against each country is maintained constant across all systems for everyone to access. The platform tends to store the first and last name of the customer, their last transaction and their payment options.
Chatbots now have the responsibility to standardize their understanding of a customer and respond to them accordingly, whether in the manner of communicating or the speed with which they resolve their query. Chatbots need to converse with customers to extract this information and keep up to their pace.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Small talk, Bot user session, Enterprise context, User context and User session
3. Making the complex conversation sound simple
Chatbots are expected to break the complex structures of conversations into simpler tones and bring to a logical conclusion. Here’s where ‘Artificial Intelligence’ comes into play. Among the many types of chatbots, the most common ones are task specific that cater to a specific job, with pre-loaded answers and information. These type of chatbots have the ability to gather data from the internet, previous company database and other sources. Therefore, these bots are able to reply to diverse queries.
The intelligent bots, in addition, have the potential to mold the conversation the way the customer wants and guide him towards a specific solution. In an office setup, it’s common for a conversation like, “Hey Lisa, set up a meeting with Phani if he’s free”, to be handled between a Boss and Secretary. To enable that, the chatbot needs to first look up the calendar of ‘Phani’, find a suitable time for a meeting in sync with the Boss’s schedule and then reschedule the meeting. Chatbots thus need to break up complex sounding conversation into simpler nuances and then execute the task sequentially and logically.
Intelligent bots can also break down the conversation to its essence and action items. Let’s look at a very common scenario: ‘Customer tries to book tickets for 14th August, confirms on the choice of airlines, origin and destination and navigates to the next page, but feels that the pricing is very high. The customer then asks the bot to check for ‘15th August instead’. Here, based on the situation, the chatbot is acting and will be able to display the new prices by changing the date of journey.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Amend Entities, Planning.
4. Adapting to human utterances
In the context of human–computer communication, forming assumptions about what a system can do and understand is problematic for most people. In turn, forming assumptions about how users will “talk to” the system is also likely to be problematic for system developers. The potential for variability in how users will communicate with a system is enormous and has been dubbed “The Vocabulary Problem.”
An intelligent chatbot can not only handle queries smartly and remembers them through the session, but also learns new things with every conversation that happens, saves them and uses them appropriately for future instances.
In a human conversation and especially over voice, there are bound to be
  • expectation of elaboration or confirmation (“can you hear me?”, “I do not follow”)
  • request for repeat of sentences (“ I’m sorry I couldn’t hear that, can you please repeat it again?” “Sorry, can you repeat?”)
  • pauses (“can you please hold? [pause] thank you!”)
  • interruptions (“the number is 212-” “sorry can you start over?” )
The simplest thing to do when writing responses to command and inquiry utterances in a conversational UI is to get straight to the point: respond with facts. That’ll remove a lot of the ambiguity and simplify the dialogue.
It’s up to the intelligent chatbot to adapt to the way the human responds - with the referential context (or) pauses (or) specific context (or) synonyms (or) repetition (or) abbreviations (or) variations in dialect. The chatbot needs to map it pre-contextually. But like their human counterparts, chatbots’ conversational skills determine whether they earn you seamless, scalable transactions or just another horde of pissed-off customers. This needs a lot of training by the chatbot to help continue the conversations to the logical ending.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Sync, Repeat, Interruptions and Pauses.
📷
5. When bots are kept simple
Although AI chatbots’ task is complicated and they need to be built up that way, yet the effort should be made to keep it simple. They need to be comprehensive yet detailed. A customer initiating a conversation with a chatbot might already be troubled due to some poor service related issue, hence it’s better not to irk him further with complex interaction. The bot should be answering the already irked usecustomer in a most precise way possible without confusing the person further. It’s easy to figure out if you are talking to a bot or a human. Make sure the customer knows that they are talking to a bot by welcoming them with some sort of welcome message. Nobody likes being told the same thing over and over again, so why do chatbots keep doing it? Bots should detect when they’re about to repeat a previously given answer and switch strategies. If the answer didn’t resolve the user’s needs before, repeating it certainly won’t either. From the user interface, to the dialog flow the experience should be pleasant, and information given to the user needs to be valuable and crisp.
Twitter also provides the option to give your bot a custom name for different sections of the bot, which can be of use. It’s important to show what the chatbot is capable of doing with Quick Replies. The customer needs to be a guided stepwise within the conversation and with enough accessible options to choose from.
Lastly, there must always be a way to end the conversation with the bot and switch to a human agent. Many bots today include a Quick Reply to “Speak to an Agent”. Certain actions, such as open-ended visual search, are challenging to complete in a messaging environment. In those situations, bots can route to a website or app to help the user complete goals they couldn’t execute within the context of chat.
Intelligent bots will have features like: Simple UI, Simpler steps, Agent Handoff
In a nutshell, a chatbot must be programmed to not just provide optimum solutions to problems, but also converse with customers in an engaging manner. The interaction must be exciting and the bot must appear to be curious enough to answer all queries. People prefer lively interactions and a chatbot needs to meet that expectation.
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For example, there are bots aligned with online shopping portals that can actually sense your liking and disliking. They can cancel orders for you accordingly and order the stuff that you actually want. Businesses are now moving way ahead than what anyone had ever thought of earlier. If we have an amazing concept like messenger or Kore.aiBots Platform, then why not use them to the full extent. Their proficiency in collecting massive data in a short period of time can be used to forecast upcoming business. You know it better how to get edgy with this interesting concept. The more you experiment with chatbots, the more you would get to know the wonders you can create with these little machines.
Some of the Global 2,000 companies and large enterprises are using Kore.ai Bots Platform to build their chatbots. How about you?
To get everything you need to build and deploy intelligent, enterprise-grade chatbots — without unnecessary complexity, click on Build your first BOT.
To ask questions, get tips, learn and grow with Kore.AI developer community, click on Ask questions on Developer Community.
Also Read on : Chatbots (of) the Future
Thank You
Phani Marupaka
LinkedIn| Tweet at : @phani_teja
submitted by PhaniTeja4 to Chatbots [link] [comments]

Options on forex pairs

So I usually trade equity options but I'm looking into trading forex since FX market hours allow for more trading opportunities. I'm wondering if there's a way to trade options on forex pairs. I usually only trade market neutral strategies (straddles, strangles, etc.) and I've tried looking into doing this with forex but haven't found anything. The closest thing I've seen is Oanda's box options but they seem to be more of a gambling tool where the "house" wins most of the time statistically speaking. Thanks!
submitted by themotherfucker123 to Forex [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/CryptoCurrency] ICOs and Cryptoassets are a Complete Scam, and Here's Why.

The following post by ResIpsaLoquiturrr is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been openly removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ CryptoCurrency/comments/7rmbyv
The original post's content was as follows:
Please upvote so that knowledgeable people can address these issues
When someone purchases a stock during an IPO, they receive an asset associated with a bundle of rights that are recognized and enforceable by law. Such rights include the right to vote, the right to share in dividend distributions, the right to inspect company books, the right to sue D&Os for breach of fiduciary duties, various minority shareholder rights, owning a portion of the company, etc).
In contrast, when someone purchases a cryptoasset, they literally receive nothing but some bytes on their computer that are unaccompanied by any legal rights even remotely analogous to those associated with traditional investment vehicles such as stocks. This begs the question, then, why cryptoassets have any value at all aside from simple supply / demand economics (i.e., the existence or non-existence of greater fools). I understand cryptocurrency and why it is traded in pairs just like fiat is traded in pairs in the FOREX market. But aside from using crypto as a currency, why are non-currency cryptoassets worth anything?
For example, Ripple Labs created XRP. However, from a traditional investment viewpoint, potential returns come not from investing the cryptoasset XRP. Rather, potential returns come from investing in Ripple Labs as a company just as various venture capitalists and angel investors invested $93,600,000 in Ripple Labs during nine different funding rounds. These venture capitalists and angel investors have top priority when it comes receiving any sort of return on investment, so why would anyone invest in XRP other than the fact that they don't have enough money to get in as a venture capitalist or angel investor? How is investing in XRP instead of Ripple Labs any different that purchasing Big Mac hamburgers thinking that you are investing in the company that sells them, i.e., MacDonalds?
The closest I’ve seen to any sort of real answer to this question is that cryptoasset tokens are used as fuel or gas on various blockchain-based networks, which are purportedly required to disincentivize spammers from spamming the open and decentralized blockchain-based network. However, no large financial institution (or other business for that matter) will resort to a public and decentralized system (they will develop and use blockchain-based networks in-house and may even make them proprietary for their own firm). Moreover, financial institutions participating in a blockchain-based network already have an incentive not to spam the network, namely to keep transaction times as optimal as possible. Additionally, why would any business with significant assets purchase tokens, gas, fuel (or whatever you want to call it) to use an open and decentralized network when it could simply use the same blockchain technology to create its own blockchain-based network, which it could then use for free without the need to disincentivize spammers.
It is impossible to invest in a "project" or a "technology." Rather, you invest in COMPANIES working on projects or advancing technologies, and when they succeed, you are rewarded because revenues increase which result in companies having greater net income distributed as larger dividends, not to mention larger capital gains due to a greater demand to purchase the legally enforceable ownership stake in the business that you own. The entire cryptosphere is nothing more than some sort of sci-fi role playing game with "fuel" and "tokens" none of which have any legally enforceable rights to anything. You're all a bunch of suckers.
Edit: The worse part is that YOUR money is going to finance Venture Capitalists' projects who will then walk away with the legal rights to it all.
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

Adding to a prospective traders training plan

To the Stock sub, yes I read the wiki, I have been increasingly more interested in the financial markets and learning how to trade. I've been reading a ton on a ton, sometimes it feels like there is so much information it can start to become overwhelming. Sometimes I don't know where to start, and sometimes I don't know where to stop. This is an immense project for anyone to start, and to the people who have 'made it'(everyone has their own definition of success' I have a tremendous amount of respect for you. It seems that, day trading, intraday trading etc. are minimized to, it's basically gambling and if you dump money in the stock market you're an idiot. I once did also subscribe to that ideology and now I realize I probably should have focused on that instead of partying with friends and making some bad decisions, but the wisest of men were once the greatest of fools said a smart guy one time, I think. Anyway just some background, I am in my early 20's and am assigned as an air traffic controller in a branch of the american military. I just developed a rough 'training plan' to get myself on the right track to being fiscally adept. The reason why I am posting is to search for some wisdom from the elders, someone that will take some time to just sift through a couple of my talking points to add or subtract some of my basic ideas, and basically just guide me in the right direction. It doesn't make much sense to go into these things blindly, especially with an area of study a whole career field is designed around. I want to develop a rough map / curriculum to follow for myself, and to try to measure any indicators (no pun intended) of progress. But I am just a beginner, so why not post this on reddit? If anyone has any tips, something to add, something to subtract, that's why this is here. I'll be around to answer any questions for the next hour or so, then I can pickup tomorrow. I'm hoping we as a community can come together with something to give to a beginner like me, with this being the beginning
LINK TO GOOGLE DOCS -- HAS MORE CORRECT FORMATTING https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTf0MMvFWdrvFlz_k-ruDuMABjaJEeZ5Aed07xEnEMI/edit?usp=sharing
My motivation – 1. So I can give family, friends and myself a life without worry. So, we have more time to focus on building meaningful experiences and forming a strong relationship with each other. 2. If profitable enough, to donate to cancer research to hopefully one-day cure cancer, more specifically, malignant brain cancers. 3. To have financial freedom. 4. To build wealth for myself and future generations of my family, regardless if it is my own kin. 5. To challenge myself. How I am doing this? Adopting a mix of education, research and simulated training I hope that by the end of CY18 I can have a small account funded 1500-3000 for trading while also focusing on paying down debt.
Education and Research: Reading List 1. Security Analysis – a. To gain a fundamental basis to judge a stocks worth, it has great reviews and has been recommended on multiple different platforms as a must read, so I am must reading it b. This book will not relate to the trading strategy that will be adopted in the beginning to build greater wealth. However, I think this will become a staple of future trading strategies. This book is basically the polar opposite to speculative trading/investment which will comprise the trading the trading strategy used to develop the wealth needed to reach the 25k minimum needed to day trade. 2. Japanese candlestick charting techniques (JCCT)-- a. This book is allegedly a great source on learning candlestick patterns and learning technical analysis. b. The focus will be learning how to read charts quick and effectively, allowing me to draw reasonable and insightful conclusions on the potential movement on stock based on its price-action 3. Will add more to the list after I finish these, but as of now I have determined learning a mix between fundamental & technical analysis will keep me well rounded so I don’t tunnel vision one way of trading. The aim is to remain well rounded and not to rely on one skill too much.
Online resources – 1. Youtube a. Ricky Gutierrez – stocks b. Timothy Sykes – stocks c. The Duomo initiative – Forex d. Numerous other youtube sources 2. Babypips – Forex 3. Lehman Brothers “Foreign Exchange Training Manual” (Dekstop) 4. Reddit? 5. Will add more as they come Simulation— 1. Tradingview.com a. Good charts, great indicators, free ‘real-time’ data and awesome charting features available as well as an easy to use papertrading, seems like a good resource for FOREX/STOCKS b. 2. TD Ameritrades ThinkOrSwim (TOS) a. 60 day Demo account that I called and got real-time data, the closest thing to a real deal trading platform I can get my hands. Will probably keep trying to learn this and use it as my basis for learning how to execute trades in the FOREX and Equity Markets. b. When the demo account runs out, make a new one, call and get live data set to the account again 3. The criteria used for the trading software a. Don’t make a lot of trades, I want to focus on only taking trades based on as much calculated risk as I can possibly calculate b. Trade around the pattern day trader rule, as when it’s time to go live I want to be used to it. What this means for me, is only take 1 or 2 trades a week, and making them meaningful. c. Try to learn something from every trade I make, failure or success I want to know if it’s pure luck or calculated risk. i. IF it’s a failure, I want to analyze why it happened to the best of my ability. ii. If it’s a success, I want to analyze how it happened and try to really solidify the knowledge. d. Try to imagine the money in the paper trading account is as real as the money in my pocket. e. Don’t rush or force trades, wait for a good “set-up” or situation. Stick to my technical analysis tools/skills and adapt to changing situations based on news releases.
Training— 1. Read at least 30 minutes each day of either Security Analysis or JCCT 2. Use youtube, babypips, reddit or some other online resource to learn SOMETHING that day. I don’t care if I am rereading the Relative Strength Indicator equation, I will do some form of online research and make it meaningful or impactful in some way. 3. Using a simulation platform, most likely TOS, develop a strategy for taking trades during the week. Live by the criteria I set for myself. a. Use each blown up paper account as lesson. b. Stay focused and don’t get emotional c. Rome wasn’t built in a day. d. Go live when I win more than I lose, and am green for 4 months. 4. Don’t forget who I’m doing this for and why. To-Do list – 1. Compile a list of terms, phrases, vocabulary and indicators to define/research and call it homework 2. Find or develop a good trading journal that is designed around a specific strategy, and before I enter into any trade I can fill it in this journal and if it meets criteria it’s time to buy. 3. Make myself some form of “homework” at-least once a week and learn from it. 4. If everything works out remain humble and try to help others succeed also. Summary – The goal is through a mix of, foundational reading (Security Analysis, JCCT and others), online resources, and simulated trading I can go from someone with very low to almost no knowledge of financial markets to a profitable and successful trader in the next 6-24 months. Using realistic and measurable goals to gauge progress (how many books have I read since I set the curriculum? How am I doing papertrading? Am I staying focused? Am I too focused?) as well as always constantly reforming and changing the training plan to grow with me I think this is possible.
submitted by DrDewclaw to stocks [link] [comments]

JPMorgan Bitcoin Analyst Report Part 2 - Full Text (sorry, no graphs)

Part 1: http://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1xmo61/jpmorgan_bitcoin_analyst_report_part_1_full_text/ Part 3: http://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1xmoax/jpmorgan_bitcoin_analyst_report_part_3_full_text/
MAKING MONEY THE OLD FASHIONED WAY
A discussion of bitcoin should begin with an Economics 101 refresher on money – what it is, how it is created and why we hold it. The classic definition of money is anything that serves as medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. A medium of exchange can be anything deliverable for a good or service, whether a mundane object, a precious metal or piece of paper. In allcases, users value the medium because employing it is more efficient than bartering. A unit of account is a way of measuring value from a common reference point, thus also facilitating commerce because goods can be compared more easily. (Recall the euro’s usefulness in this regard since now prices in Europe are comparable across 18 countries.) A store of value is just a way of holding wealth until it is exchanged for goods and services or lent or given to someone else.
For centuries precious metals, or paper currencies convertible into metal at a fixed rate, served these three functions. But followers of financial history know the limitation of a system based on a fixed or slow-growing money supply: it imposes uncomfortable financial discipline on governments, households and corporates.
Hence the progressive debasement of pure gold coins with alloys; the global abandonment of the gold standard during the financial strains during World War I; and the US government’s suspension of the dollar’s gold convertibility given fiscal and balance of payments pressure from the Vietnam War.
Today most countries employ fiat currencies, or paper and coins with no intrinsic worth whose perceived value stems from government declaration (or fiat) collective belief. The government creates demand for a currency by declaring it legal tender, meaning it must be accepted as payment for all debts and it will be used in any transactions between the government and other agents.
Consumers and corporates accept this fiat currency because it is a requirement for settling all debts public (paying taxes) and private. The government attempts to guard the value of money by maintaining a monopoly on its production to avoid counterfeiting, and by establishing a central bank with a mandate to manage its supply responsibly over time.
While this system may sound like blithe existence in The Matrix, this relationship amongst government, central bank, households, corporates and fiat currencies is much more efficient than an alternative like barter. It also makes macroeconomic shocks much easier to manage than an alternative like the gold standard (recall the deflation of the Great Depression and more recently peripheral Europe).
BITCOIN AS BETTER MONEY
Bitcoin proposes an alternative, however. If – despite their mandates – the world's biggest central banks risk inflation and currency debasement via the rapid expansion of their balance sheets, and if even European governments still impose capital controls (Cyprus), couldn’t a non-state entity more responsibly supply a fiat-like currency to the world? And if this currency were created and exchanged digitally amongst peers of consumers and corporates, it would have the additional advantage of avoiding the fees imposed by financial intermediaries as well as the loss of privacy inherent in third-party payments systems. Hence the purported appeal of a virtual currency: a medium of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value without the alleged recklessness, capriciousness, siphoning and snooping inherent in traditional systems. Even leaving aside this caricature of bitcoin's underlying philosophy, there is something compelling about the idea.
Simple in theory, but more complex in practice. Consider the infrastructure of a traditional monetary and payments system to highlight what bitcoin attempts to replace. A traditional financial system is a national network comprising a central bank owned by a government, which creates money by physically printing currency and minting coins, or by electronically creating bank reservess. That money is used by households, consumers and the government to facilitate trade and investment via a payments system of banks and other financial intermediaries (think PayPal, Visa, Western Union and in some countries, the post office). Financial intermediaries provide numerous services of varying complexity, but their role in the payments system is simple: verify that Customer A has sufficient funds to pay Customer B, then securely transfer ownership of that money between accounts. For assuming that verification and transfer risk, intermediaries levy a fee.
Bitcoin performs these functions of money creation, payment verification and fund transfer quite differently. Its network is international and comprises miners who create the currency and users who obtain the currency to buy goods and services. There is no central monetary authority or regulator. There is also no financial intermediary for exchanging bitcoins for real products. The closest to an intermediary is an exchanger who will swap bitcoins for traditional fiat currencies like dollars, euros, yen or renminbi, like a forex dealer or futures exchange.7
Miners create bitcoins electronically by solving a mathematical algorithm released in 2009 by an unidentified programmer (or perhaps group of programmers) known by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. Anyone can be a miner; they simply need to download the software required to interact with others on the network, and acquire hardware powerful enough to run the multitudinous calculations to solve the algorithm. Since the technology required to solve an increasingly complex algorithm grows over time, miners will probably be programming specialists rather than the average consumer or businessperson.
Any individual or business can be a bitcoin user, however, by establishing an electronic account know as a wallet. This wallet is associated with a user's electronic address but not to any other identifying information such as their name, phone number or physical address. Thus bitcoin is a pseudonymous system rather than an anonymous one in that every user is known by something other than the legal names associated with traditional banking.
To provide security as well as transact with other users, bitcoin employs cryptography which assigns two keys (alphanumeric codes) to each account – a private one known only to them and a public one known to all other users in the network. When two users wish to transact, they send a message to the network using their public keys signed by their private keys. This transaction forms part of a block chain or bundle of transactions entirely in the public domain along with all other historical bitcoin transactions performed in the network.
Miners compete to verify that this trade is authentic via algorithms to confirm that indeed a user possesses the bitcoin and did not previously spend it. Programmers (miners) who solve the equations to authenticate a block of transactions receive 25 bitcoins increasing the money supply. Whenever the algorithm is solved, it becomes computationally more difficult so that the next attempt requires more time an effort (i.e. computing power). This feedback mechanism limits the growth rate of bitcoin supply, so is somewhat analogous to the production constraint on gold. The more that is mined, the greater the requirement to dig deeper pits, the greater effort required to extract the marginal ounce and the higher the price of the marginal ounce (or coin). The stock of bitcoins is arbitrarily set at 21 million units to be mined by 2140, 12 million of which have already been mined. At early-February market prices of about $700 per unit, the current bitcoin money supply has a value of about $8.5bn, equivalent to the market capitalisation of the Mauritius Stock Exchange.
As complicated as this process is, it begins to address several acknowledged deficiencies of fiat currencies. It provides steady, predictable growth in the money supply. It eliminates the risk of capital controls because the network lacks a central authority. It provides verification of fund balances to avoid fraud. And it eliminates or at least significantly reduces transaction costs for payments because verifiers are rewarded through bitcoin creation. As fanciful – and indeed Matrix-like – as this bitcoin creation system sounds, perhaps it requires no more suspended disbelief than the traditional fiat system in which a government declares paper to have value and a central bank or national mint thus issues the specie. One doesn’t need to be the caricatured miscreant, Austrian economist or anarchist to appreciate the appeal of such a system.
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Forex Trading Hours Clock - Market 24h Clock - YouTube Which Day and Time is best to trade in the Forex Market ... Best Time To Trade Forex Market  No Loss In Intraday ... Price Action Secrets: The Best Times To Trade Forex - YouTube Forex Market Hours  When To Trade The Forex Market - YouTube Forex market hours clock  Forex time zone converter[Forex ... Forex Market Hours - YouTube

Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Please do not trade with borrowed money or money you cannot afford to lose. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Intomillion.com owners and affiliates will not accept ... Time disparities can cause setbacks for U.S. investors who want to trade internationally. Many of these exchanges allow orders to be placed before opening, but trades are only executed during that market's local operating hours—and the trades you can make may be limited, depending on your broker's rules or the rules of the exchange. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price ... Brilliant idea that can help to succeed in the forex market. Reply. SF Sharif Ahmed December 10, 2017 at 6:00 am . Thanks for your information.More helpful artical.May you live long. Reply . Richardds Don November 11, 2017 at 6:51 pm . THANKS FOR YOUR DIRECTION. Reply. Ivan Orozco October 26, 2017 at 7:07 am . Very useful information that will permit me increase the trading knowledge I need ... The foreign exchange (forex) market is the largest and most liquid asset market on earth, trading 24/7 around the globe. There is actually no central location for the forex market - it is a ... At the same time, the FOREX market is working on extremely simple rules. Whether you sell 100 euros to buy dollars at the airport exchange bureau while you are waiting for your flight, or a large bank sells $ 100 million against Japanese yen to another bank, and in both cases you have FOREX deals. FOREX players range from huge financial institutions that run billions to regular “home ... To my surprise, you can also time the Forex market, or at least the bull cross on the U.S. Dollar Index. Buying the index upon a bull cross produced an average return of 1.78% holding for 3 months, 2.25% holding for 6 months, 1.98% holding for 1 year and 4.94% holding for 2 years.

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Forex Trading Hours Clock - Market 24h Clock - YouTube

Forex Market Hours When To Trade The Forex Market, in this video you will learn how to trade the forex market using the the knowledge of forex market hours... If you are a forex trader and want to know the best time to do trading in the forex market and earn more money from forex trading this is the best video. In ... Visit our website: http://market24hclock.com/About?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=Channel_of_the_Market_24h_Clock&utm_campaign=Introductory_Video Download our... Forex market hours clock Forex time zone converter[Forex Toolbox] What are the major Forex market trading hours? Easily convert the major market trading h... Best Time To Trade Forex Market No Loss In Intraday Trading DOWNLOAD THIS INDICATOR https://mega.nz/file/Yg1WDbCY#d8NF1na_BOgTRpIcq3jaOLuFv4oATKFhlaBMS6MP... So many traders ask me "What is the best time to trade?" and I always reply with the same answer. I struggled with this one immensely as I was starting out, ... Forex Market Hours - Forex For Beginners

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